The following produces predictions for health care needs in GA for COVID-19. The basis for this is a transmission simulation model, which is described here: http://2019-coronavirus-tracker.com/stochastic-GA.html
The transmission simulation model is run for different intervention scenarios. Output from this model is further processed here to produce estimates for health care needs in GA.
Below are assumptions with high and low values for different quantities that go into the model predictions.
We use the data below for population composition of GA. This age stratification is used below for risk calculations.
We assume that among those that are cases (i.e. infected and tested positive), risk of hospitalization is as follows. This is based on (Wu and McGoogan 2020; Ferguson and al. 2020; Remuzzi and Remuzzi 2020). The first number is a low estimate, the second number a high end estimate. All values are percent.
We assume that among those that are hospitalized, risk of critical care need is as follows. This is based on (Wu and McGoogan 2020; Ferguson and al. 2020; Remuzzi and Remuzzi 2020). The first number is a low estimate, the second number a high end estimate:
We assume that among cases, risk of death is as follows. This is based on (Verity et al. 2020). The first number is a low estimate, the second number a high end estimate:
We assume that a hospital stay is between 10 (low) and 20 (high) days and independent of age. This is based on (Guan et al. 2020; Tindale et al. 2020; Sanche et al. 2020).
Figures and Tables with predictions for different infection spread scenarios. See here for more details on each scenario.
Results show predicted hospitalizations and critical care needs. For each variable, a low and high prediction is produced. Each variable is also reported as new individuals entering a given state (hospitalized/critical/etc.) at any given day and the total number of individuals in that state at any given date.
Dates | Hosp_new_low | Hosp_new_high | Hosp_tot_low | Hosp_tot_high | Crit_new_low | Crit_new_high | Crit_tot_low | Crit_tot_high | Dead_new_low | Dead_new_high | Dead_tot_low | Dead_tot_high |
2020-03-06 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2020-03-07 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2020-03-08 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2020-03-09 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2020-03-10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2020-03-11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2020-03-12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
2020-03-13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
2020-03-14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
2020-03-15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
2020-03-16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
2020-03-17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
2020-03-18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
2020-03-19 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
2020-03-20 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
2020-03-21 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 9 |
2020-03-22 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 14 |
2020-03-23 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 20 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 20 |
2020-03-24 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 29 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 29 |
2020-03-25 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 38 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 19 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 38 |
2020-03-26 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 48 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 24 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 48 |
2020-03-27 | 2 | 11 | 12 | 59 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 29 | 2 | 11 | 13 | 59 |
2020-03-28 | 3 | 12 | 15 | 70 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 35 | 3 | 12 | 15 | 70 |
2020-03-29 | 3 | 12 | 17 | 82 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 41 | 3 | 12 | 18 | 83 |
2020-03-30 | 3 | 13 | 20 | 96 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 47 | 3 | 13 | 21 | 96 |
2020-03-31 | 3 | 14 | 23 | 109 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 54 | 3 | 14 | 24 | 110 |
2020-04-01 | 3 | 15 | 25 | 124 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 61 | 3 | 15 | 27 | 124 |
2020-04-02 | 3 | 15 | 27 | 139 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 69 | 3 | 15 | 30 | 139 |
2020-04-03 | 3 | 16 | 29 | 154 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 76 | 3 | 16 | 33 | 155 |
2020-04-04 | 4 | 16 | 31 | 171 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 84 | 4 | 16 | 37 | 172 |
2020-04-05 | 4 | 17 | 33 | 187 | 1 | 8 | 10 | 93 | 4 | 17 | 41 | 188 |
2020-04-06 | 4 | 17 | 34 | 205 | 1 | 9 | 10 | 101 | 4 | 17 | 44 | 206 |
2020-04-07 | 4 | 18 | 36 | 222 | 1 | 9 | 11 | 110 | 4 | 18 | 48 | 223 |
2020-04-08 | 4 | 18 | 37 | 240 | 1 | 9 | 11 | 119 | 4 | 18 | 52 | 242 |
2020-04-09 | 4 | 19 | 38 | 258 | 1 | 9 | 12 | 128 | 4 | 19 | 56 | 261 |
2020-04-10 | 4 | 19 | 40 | 275 | 1 | 9 | 12 | 136 | 4 | 19 | 60 | 280 |
2020-04-11 | 4 | 19 | 41 | 291 | 1 | 10 | 12 | 144 | 4 | 19 | 65 | 299 |
2020-04-12 | 4 | 20 | 42 | 305 | 1 | 10 | 13 | 151 | 4 | 20 | 69 | 319 |
2020-04-13 | 4 | 20 | 43 | 319 | 1 | 10 | 13 | 158 | 4 | 20 | 73 | 339 |
2020-04-14 | 4 | 21 | 44 | 331 | 1 | 10 | 13 | 164 | 4 | 21 | 78 | 360 |
2020-04-15 | 5 | 21 | 45 | 343 | 1 | 10 | 14 | 170 | 5 | 21 | 82 | 381 |
2020-04-16 | 5 | 21 | 46 | 355 | 1 | 11 | 14 | 175 | 5 | 21 | 87 | 402 |
2020-04-17 | 5 | 22 | 47 | 365 | 1 | 11 | 14 | 181 | 5 | 22 | 91 | 424 |
2020-04-18 | 5 | 22 | 48 | 375 | 1 | 11 | 15 | 186 | 5 | 22 | 96 | 446 |
2020-04-19 | 5 | 22 | 49 | 385 | 1 | 11 | 15 | 191 | 5 | 22 | 101 | 468 |
2020-04-20 | 5 | 23 | 50 | 395 | 2 | 11 | 15 | 195 | 5 | 23 | 106 | 491 |
2020-04-21 | 5 | 23 | 50 | 404 | 1 | 11 | 15 | 200 | 5 | 23 | 111 | 514 |
2020-04-22 | 5 | 23 | 51 | 413 | 2 | 12 | 16 | 204 | 5 | 23 | 116 | 537 |
2020-04-23 | 5 | 23 | 52 | 421 | 2 | 12 | 16 | 208 | 5 | 23 | 121 | 560 |
2020-04-24 | 5 | 24 | 53 | 429 | 2 | 12 | 16 | 212 | 5 | 24 | 126 | 584 |
2020-04-25 | 5 | 24 | 54 | 437 | 2 | 12 | 16 | 216 | 5 | 24 | 131 | 608 |
Ferguson, Neil, and et al. 2020. “Report 9: Impact of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (Npis) to Reduce Covid-19 Mortality and Healthcare Demand.” https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/news--wuhan-coronavirus/.
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Tindale, Lauren, Michelle Coombe, Jessica E. Stockdale, Emma Garlock, Wing Yin Venus Lau, Manu Saraswat, Yen-Hsiang Brian Lee, et al. 2020. “Transmission Interval Estimates Suggest Pre-Symptomatic Spread of COVID-19.” medRxiv, March, 2020.03.03.20029983. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.03.20029983.
Verity, Robert, Lucy C. Okell, Ilaria Dorigatti, Peter Winskill, Charles Whittaker, Natsuko Imai, Gina Cuomo-Dannenburg, et al. 2020. “Estimates of the Severity of COVID-19 Disease.” medRxiv, March, 2020.03.09.20033357. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.09.20033357.
Wu, Zunyou, and Jennifer M. McGoogan. 2020. “Characteristics of and Important Lessons from the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Outbreak in China: Summary of a Report of 72 314 Cases from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention.” JAMA, February. https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2020.2648.
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